Will Fed Kill The Golden Goose ?! – 7/27/2016

Will Fed Kill The Golden Goose ?! – 7/27/2016

Gold trade in essence is the fear + yield trade.  Currently Fed carry more weight in dictating Gold’s direction because gold is priced in dollars and dollar’s value is being tuned by Fed’s experiments.  So in gold’s pricing equation, fear factor is temporary but in long term it will settle in proportion to the rates.

Earlier we were able to capitalize on the fear part of the equation during the Brexit. But Brexit didn’t turn out to be that disastrous ( well in perception, because market is never about the reality !  And we were very clear that in reality it’s all hogwash, because Brexit is not going to put UK on Mars ).  At that time we were expecting the momentum in Gold and Silver to continue but unfortunately things calmed down and Central Banks didn’t hit the panic button and both lost their appeal along the way.  Still even after huge equity rise in aftermath of Brexit, both Gold and Silver haven’t lost the heights precipitously and that’s encouraging.  But it may soon change if Fed spooks the market with the word ‘hike’ in commentary.

So here are the trades.

GOLD –  Not going to buy again until we get the good bargain near 1240 or ultimately 1200.  These two are really strong buy side support levels.  If Gold starts settling down under 1280 then the path of least resistance will be down and that will be the time to brush up our short side playbook.

SilverSilver has maintained 19.50 support so far but a gentle push can get it tumbling towards 16 again.  No strong bias right now so let’s see what comes first, 16 or 22.  Near 16, we are buyers.

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GOLD_Weekly_Chart_July_27_2016

GOLD_Weekly_Chart_July_27_2016