USD/INR – Evaporating Hope For Better Days – 4/30/2018

USD/INR – Evaporating Hope For Better Days – 4/30/2018

Rise in USD/INR is going to be the proportional to the rate of evaporation of the hope for better days in India.  Well, the proposition itself was a pipedream but anyway let’s focus on currency and not on crooks.

I gave a talk in NJ,USA few years back on USD/INR, where the audience was comprised of some bankers from India and some politicians along with many people doing frequent repatriation of US Dollars into Indian Rupees . Basically bankers were there to lure NRI investors to invest in India and take advantage of better exchange rate ( It was the time when USD/INR shot up above 60 for the first time ).  Their argument was that, it is just temporary and USD/INR will be back to 40/50 range quickly.  Reason? Well, the only reason they had is that it just happens that way !  While my thoughts were that USD/INR is going only in one direction and that is up ! Because, the land of lawlessness still need to do lot better to attract good stable long-term investment from foreigners.

Luckily Indian Rupee has weathered few years in good condition than its other Asian peers.  But sooner or later the reality will catch up. Imminent potential problems may arise from next year election and from Fed rate rising.

Still the Trade is: Buy USD, sell INR

USDINR_Monthly_April_30_2018

USDINR_Monthly_April_30_2018