Both antipodeans – AUD/USD and NZD/USD poses the same conundrum and that is whether to short based on global clues and central bank bashing or go long purely based on yield advantage. At times, one factor is more powerful than another. But it is foolish to go all in relying solely on fundamental factors during such skittish market. Difficult market to trade based on macro picture since themes keep on changing everyday but good place for technical traders to grab few pips here and there.
To site the example, you can look at our previous trade idea on NZD/USD where we wanted to short it near 0.7500 resistance based on fundamental factor of diminishing yield differential between US dollar and New Zealand Dollar. But now even thought US yields are falling again, NZD is still not able to clear 0.7500 technical resistance.
So what’s the trade then?
Well, when fundamental picture is not certain, market does only one thing and that is – range trading. Here also we are picking the wide range of 0.7000 and 0.75000 to trade. Short from the top and long from the bottom of the range until we get the evidence about a clear theme in the market. Don’t try to read too much from fundamentals, just trade technically and you should be fine ! Look at the accompanying chart – watch the highlighted levels – and pick the trade !
Follow us on Twitter @Bombay_Bulls for trade updates.