Throw any international or domestic good or bad news at NIFTY and it just doesn’t want to budge. This month is already shaping up as one of the lowest range month in recent history and kind of trader’s nightmare. You can trade it if it goes up or down but how could you trade if it just doesn’t move at all ! Well, one may argue that by selling options premium but you have to be mindful that the events occurred this month were huge – Fed meeting, RBI rate meeting, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan exit news, 100 % FDI in major sectors are just to name a few. And if you ask any trader to earn option premium against such events, she will probably call you nuts !
We advised traders not to get sucked into the initial volatility during the news of Rajan’s exit because market may cheer it as good news came out right. But unfortunately we didn’t get a bounce big enough to sell at good levels. If government is thinking that by just cutting rates it will produce a panacea then they are kidding themselves. Market hasn’t cheered 100 % FDI in a way it used to earlier is the sign of what’s coming. No international investor knowingly invest in a country where he is certain about 20 / 30 % currency devaluation in near future, not to mention lawlessness and poor infrastructure. It is a blessing that Fed hasn’t hiked yet and may not hike soon. Otherwise internal problems with external forces to throw the currency out would have made the spike in USD/INR even worst.
Let’s wait a watch, when and how this consolidation breaks and then we will take our next step.