2018 – What To Learn, 2019 – What To Expect

2018 – What To Learn, 2019 – What To Expect

2018 was full of hints about what kind of future we can expect. Some of the things I can think of are,

Volatility

Mindless, nonproductive, non-directional, irrational, twit-driven, short-term etc. You got the point.  Yes this is the world we are living in.  Learn it or lose it.

Informed Traders

Don’t know how to describe these new phenomenon in better words but the point is that the share of people with more information and general smartness who trade the market has increased.  That means all easy trading techniques of money making has gone ! How? Well, in market, usually you earn more if you are either the first or know your way of getting in or out.  So if everybody is following, buy the dip or follow the trend, or simple trend-line or head-and-shoulders etc then effectiveness of such things are going to decrease. There are many means for people to get quick information and let’s say common thinking is to sell Euro, then euro will be sold hard immediately, giving little chance to enter and will only stop at the next logical resting point.  The journey of few hundred pips which used to take days earlier, now can be completed in hrs or minutes.

Here big funds are losers because they can’t be nimble since masses are fickle and often produces the illusion of change in direction of the trade. So here size does matter !

 

Ultra Low Interest rates

When everything is similar, what to buy and what to short.

Global high growth scenario is very says to trade ( and that’s where lost of so called start trades made tons of money ).  When growth is good and there is rush to increase the interest rates, one can blindly  buy AUD, NZD or sell JPY, CHF and live happily. Even I think negative growth or steep recession is easy to trade, but time is very difficult when the graph loses the pulse !  Comatose price action, followed by sudden moves is very hard to trade.  Looking at the things, this ultra low interest rate scenario is still going to remain.